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General Election 2024: What are the polls saying about Suffolk a day out from the election?





What are the polls saying about Suffolk a day out from the General Election?

By this time tomorrow voting will be well under way across the country, with millions of ballots cast and pictures of dogs at polling stations to match.

Nationally, the BBC’s election poll aggregate, which measures the average from several different members of the British Polling Council, is predicting massive losses for the Conservatives, with Labour set to gain between 35 and 45 per cent of the vote, while the Tories sit between 15 and 25 per cent.

Ipswich Polling Station. Picture: Ipswich Borough Council
Ipswich Polling Station. Picture: Ipswich Borough Council

But with Suffolk historically seen as a safe blue county, could there be any changes?

One way to predict this is through multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) models — effectively large-scale polls which look at how different demographic characteristics, such as age, sex, and education, affect people’s votes, and then compare it to the demographic makeup of each constituency.

Although these models hardly tell the whole story, with different ones producing hugely different results, particularly at the constituency level, they do provide some context.

One such model, released by YouGov, showed a weakening of the Conservative majorities which could lead to some changes in the political make-up of the county.

Most notably, it predicts that the Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket constituency, an area which has seen nothing but Tory representatives since 1885, could turn red by the slimmest of margins.

The YouGov model still has most of the county remaining blue with a few close results along the way.

Another model, released by Ipsos just over halfway through last month, is predicting slightly larger cracks in the blue stronghold, with the Conservatives only holding on to two constituencies, Suffolk Coastal and South Suffolk.

Unlike the previous model, Ipsos is also predicting a Green win in the new Waveney Valley constituency, where the party has devoted a lot of resources this time around.

Although both previous models predict a strong local showing from Reform UK, seemingly diluting the Conservative share of the vote to the point of Labour creeping through, Electoral Calculus has the emerging party overtaking the Tories in several constituencies.

It also has Labour winning most of the county, convincingly in half of it, while the Greens take Waveney Valley.

Ultimately, regardless of which scenario any of the polls are predicting, the decision will come down to voters.

Polling stations will be open between 7am and 10pm — a full list of candidates can be found here.