University of Suffolk lecturer Duncan Weaver shares his predictions for the 2024 US Presidential Election
A Suffolk academic says all eyes are on swing states as voters in the US head to the polls.
Dr Duncan Weaver, a senior lecturer at the University of Suffolk in Ipswich and the head of its MA international relations course, has urged politics enthusiasts to take opinion polls with a pinch of salt.
However, he believed ‘international order was being destabilised’ at the prospect of a second Trump term.
Today, voters in the US go to the polls to elect the new president of the United States of America.
Dr Weaver said Democrat nominee Kamala Harris (running mate Tim Walz) and Republican nominee and former president Donald Trump (running mate JD Vance) were ‘neck and neck’ – with it being impossible to tell who will win in advance, although Harris has a slight lead.
Other candidates include Libertarian Chase Oliver with his running mate Mike ter Maat and the Green Party’s Jill Stein, running alongside Butch Ware.
Dr Weaver said: “All eyes on the swing states. It's level pegging.
“There is going to be a massive final push to persuade the ordinary working person to get out and vote. And the consequences will go far beyond the USA.”
Dr Weaver told SuffolkNews Harris had a lot of catching up to do since she became the nominee after sitting president Joe Biden dropped out of the race on June 24, 2024, which has come with a ‘more modest and muted presence’ when compared to Trump.
However, he felt she had consolidated her position well after a tough starting position, having entered the race late.
Dr Weaver said: “Some critics would argue she's not the most memorable character in US politics, however, she's known for her competence and ability.”
He made reference to how the Democratic Party united behind Harris, while Trump did not have the full support of the Republican Party.
“Some within the party do turn to his [Trump’s] businessman approach to politics, who see it as refreshing – a shot in the arm the Government needs, but I do not share that view.
“Time will tell, should Trump win, whether his VP pick Vance would have moderating influence.”
The states to watch in the election are Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, Dr Weaver said, as the swing states in this election.
Dr Weaver said: “It goes without saying that Pennsylvania would be the one to monitor closely. It has more sway.
“I would be surprised to see rural blue collar states such as Georgia being landslided by the Democrats. This is US politics.”
Sentiment from some political pundits has described 2024 as the most important election in a generation, a sentiment Dr Weaver agreed with.
He expressed fear, in the case of a Harris win, of a repeat of the infamous storming of The Capitol building on January 6, 2021, which he felt set a dangerous precedent for the other countries of the world.
He said ‘populism was the headline’ and was having a destabilising effect on politics in the West.
In general, his predictions for a Harris win would be a continuation of ‘reasonable foreign policy and support for allies’ as well as ‘more pressure on Israel, pressure on avoiding human rights abuses and pressure to avoid escalation’.
Regarding a Trump win, he predicted a reduction in support for NATO and Ukraine, and greater levels of economic protectionism, particularly tariffs on the EU and China.
Regarding how the election could affect those of us outside the US, he said: “It could affect us through cost, increased costs need to be tackled by someone and this will fall on the consumer.
“Should there be escalation in the Middle East, there will be retaliation from Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
“This is likely to contribute to increases in oil prices and possibly the re-routing of civilian ships.”
